OPEC+ Plays the Long Game on Production Cuts, While Non-OPEC Players Take Notes

OPEC+ has apparently decided to extend its crude production cuts into 2026, a move that’s less about boosting prices and more about keeping the rest of the oil-producing world guessing. The reported decision will cap the group’s production at 39.725 million barrels per day for another year and delay the unwinding of both voluntary and formal production cuts. The strategy is clear: keep prices high enough to stay profitable but unpredictable enough to make life miserable for competitors.

“I’d say this is expected,” a London-based energy expert told Moby. “They keep prices elevated with these mini extensions but don’t give enough comfort to support significant investments in larger projects outside OPEC. Basically, push oil higher but keep people on their toes, so it’s hard to make investment decisions.”

The strategy is also a defensive posture. Non-OPEC players, like the rapidly emerging Guyana, are quickly becoming a headache for the cartel. Guyana, with its Exxon-led offshore oil boom, is pumping out crude at a pace that would make even Saudi Arabia blush under its keffiyeh. Add in Brazil, Canada, and the ever-industrious U.S., and you’ve got a growing cohort of non-OPEC producers eager to grab market share.

Meanwhile, OPEC is trying to hold the line against a backdrop of geopolitical chaos. Russia’s war in Ukraine and unrest in the Middle East should be driving prices up, but demand has been underwhelming, leaving OPEC+ in a bind. The cartel is playing chess while non-OPEC producers play checkers, and so far, the board looks tilted in favor of the newcomers.

It’s a precarious balance, and one misstep could open the floodgates for those sidelined competitors to step in and eat OPEC’s lunch. For now, though, the cartel is betting that uncertainty is its greatest weapon.