Can Elon’s DOGE Slash $2 Trillion Without Scratching Social Security?

The math looks hard for Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to achieve their goal without grabbing the third rail of American politics

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have teamed up for a government spending adventure that promises to deliver Capitol Hill chaos, chainsaws, and, apparently, zero salaries. They’re calling it “DOGE” (yes, like the meme cryptocurrency), a bold initiative to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. But looking at the basic math makes it difficult to see how it adds up without changes to Social Security, which the President-Elect has already promised wouldn’t be touched.

WHAT HAPPENED

DOGE (short for the Department of Government Efficiency) isn’t an actual government department but an advisory body with a direct line to Trump’s White House. With a mission to slash regulations, downsize federal agencies, and trim spending, Musk and Ramaswamy are leading the charge, promising “unglamorous cost cutting” and mass layoffs.

While the mission may sound lofty, $2 trillion in cuts over four years, DOGE faces the unenviable task of navigating a budget where most of the dollars are very much spoken for. Trump vowed multiple times on the campaign trail that he wouldn’t touch social security but Musk and Ramaswamy were reportedly leaving that door pretty wide open in meetings on The Hill last week with GOP lawmakers.

But can they convince politicians to grab the third rail of cutting back on social security going into the 2026 midterms? If they want to hit their goal, they might have to.

WHY IT MATTERS

Let’s put this in perspective. The U.S. government’s annual spending is about $6.4 trillion. Of that, a whopping 63% goes to mandatory programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid expenses that operate on autopilot unless Congress overhauls the laws underpinning them. Another 7% pays the interest on our $33 trillion national debt, leaving 30% for everything else. That 30% includes defense (13%), and non-defense discretionary spending (another 13%).

Musk and Ramaswamy insist they’ll find $2 trillion in savings without touching Social Security or Medicare. But even if they gutted every single non-defense program. Like schools, roads, housing, you name it, they’d still be about $1 trillion short.

Their other big idea is axing federal agencies wholesale. Ramaswamy wants to shutter the Department of Education, the FBI, and the IRS. But here’s the catch: the combined budgets of those agencies don’t even crack $250 billion annually. Closing them would make headlines but wouldn’t scratch the surface of their $2 trillion target.

This takes us back to defense spending, that $842 billion behemoth. It’s one of the few budget items with bipartisan support, and any serious cuts would invite howls from defense contractors, lobbyists, and lawmakers. Besides, Musk is too busy launching rockets for the Pentagon to take his chainsaw to their checkbook.

So now we’re back to the elephant in the room: Social Security. At 20% of total federal spending, around $1.3 trillion, it’s the largest single program. It’s also the most politically untouchable. Even whispering about changes risks alienating a core Republican demographic: older voters. The GOP’s House and Senate majorities hang by a thread as it is, and with the 2026 midterms approaching, tampering with Social Security could be a political disaster.

There’s precedent for this. George W. Bush’s attempt to partially privatize Social Security in 2005 led to a voter backlash so severe that Democrats swept Congress in 2006. The GOP knows this history, and they won’t want to repeat it. Musk and Ramaswamy can’t touch Social Security without risking the party’s future. And yet, they can’t reach their $2 trillion goal without it.

WHAT'S NEXT

DOGE’s mission is set to expire in 2026, right in time for America’s 250th birthday and the midterms. Musk and Ramaswamy claim they’ll have delivered a “leaner, meaner” government by then, but the reality looks more like scorched earth. Expect epic battles on Capitol Hill as lawmakers balk at proposals to gut popular programs or downsize agencies.

Meanwhile, voters aren’t likely to warm to the idea of firing millions of federal workers or dismantling agencies they depend on. The Grace Commission, Reagan’s 1980s-era attempt at government reform, made 2,500 recommendations to save money. Congress ignored most of them. Musk and Ramaswamy may find themselves similarly sidelined once the political fireworks start.

And as the midterms start to loom closer, any misstep involving Social Security could trigger a voter revolt. Democrats would have a field day framing the GOP as out of touch with retirees and working-class Americans. It’s one thing to promise fiscal responsibility, but it’s another to ask voters to sacrifice their retirement security for it.