Everything You Need to Know This Week
The Nasdaq tiptoed through a choppy week and somehow came out the least bruised. Markets shrugged at another round of tariffs, this time starring copper and a rotating cast of countries including South Korea, Japan, and Brazil. Delta tried to bring some optimism back to the skies with a rosier outlook and lifted the rest of the airline sector with it. Meanwhile, Nvidia hit a $4 trillion market cap and reminded everyone that AI still owns the spotlight. The Fed released meeting minutes that read like a group project without a leader. Some officials want rate cuts. Some don’t. Two are already circling July as decision day. Treasuries liked the confusion for a moment before remembering the deficit is still a thing. Trump ended the week by threatening tariffs on Mexico and the EU. Markets mostly yawned. They’ve learned how to tune out reruns.
1. Tariffs Delayed Again, and Markets Getting Exhausted
As we mentioned, President Trump is now threatening a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1. Trump did so on Saterudaty via letter and social media post, a/ka his preferred method of diplomacy. Despite weeks of negotiations with two of our closest trade partners, deals didn’t land, and now the White House is back in full trade-war posture. Both Mexico and the EU called the tariffs unfair and disruptive, though they still say they’re open to a deal. Trump’s mass-mailed tariff threats now include 23 countries, plus copper, steel, aluminum, and autos. Investors are watching the familiar playbook and hoping that he once again blinks late, but with the S&P still near highs and Trump feeling emboldened, the escalation looks real. Europe says it’s ready to retaliate, so maybe Mexico is also banking on TACO.
2. “Superman” Flies Past Box Office Expectations with $122 Million Debut
“Superman” soared to a $122 million domestic debut this weekend, signaling that DC might finally have cracked the code. It’s the strongest solo Superman opening ever and the first theatrical test for James Gunn and Peter Safran as heads of DC Studios. Their 10-year reboot plan appears to be taking flight. The film outpaced 2013’s “Man of Steel” and now trails only four DC titles for biggest opening weekends, including both “Dark Knight” films. Internationally, it added $95 million for a $217 million global haul. With momentum swinging back to DC, Marvel looks to answer on July 25 with “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”
3. Elon’s Problematic AI Menagerie Gets a $2 Billion Boost From… Elon
SpaceX is reportedly pumping $2 billion into xAI as part of a $5 billion equity round, according to the Wall Street Journal. The deal tightens Elon Musk’s corporate constellation, following xAI’s merger with X and plans to plug its Grok chatbot into Starlink support and Tesla’s robot ambitions. The combined company now carries a $113 billion valuation. Musk didn’t confirm the Journal’s scoop but called a potential Tesla investment “great,” pending board and shareholder approval. That last part landed with a wink, considering Musk didn’t exactly ask shareholders when Tesla bailed out SolarCity in 2016. Grok, despite recent hiccups, is still Musk’s favorite genius, and xAI is spending like it’s prepping for the singularity.
4. Oil Shrugs, Traders Sweat as Trump Teases Russia Sanctions
Oil prices moved slightly higher Monday, but the mood stayed cautious. Brent ticked up to $70.44 and WTI hit $68.50, adding to Friday’s rally sparked by chatter of tighter markets and peak summer demand. The real tension now comes from Washington, where President Trump is expected to make a “major” announcement on Russia. New sanctions are in play, and markets are watching for anything that could squeeze supply. At the same time, Saudi Arabia appears to be playing fast and loose with its OPEC+ quota. Officially, they’re compliant. Unofficially, output is up. With China’s trade data looming and global tariff talks still simmering, oil traders are hedging more than hoping.
Political and Market Sentiment
President Trump’s fixation on Jay Powell has found its latest villain in... interior design .A long-planned renovation of the Federal Reserve’s Washington headquarters has ballooned in cost, giving Trump and his allies fresh ammo in their ongoing campaign to oust the Fed chair. The official line is fiscal responsibility. The subtext is that Powell still won’t cut rates. Trump’s team is floating the idea that mismanaging a construction budget could be the legal hook needed to remove Powell from the Fed board. Markets, unsurprisingly, are not excited. Firing a Fed chair over office renovations is the kind of political drama Wall Street loathes. It raises questions about independence, credibility, and just how far Trump is willing to go to get cheaper money. Cue Jamie Dimon being "subtle" on Tuesday.
Global Markets Overview
Europe: The STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 1.15% in local currency terms on optimism around new U.S. trade deals but lost steam late in the week after President Trump said he would notify the EU of higher tariffs. Major indexes followed suit. France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.73%, Germany’s DAX gained 1.97%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB added 1.15%. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.34% and hit a record high. In the UK, GDP shrank 0.1% in May, marking the second straight monthly decline after April’s 0.3% drop. Analysts had expected a rebound. Construction and industrial output dragged. Still, GDP rose 0.5% over the past three months, down from 0.7% in the prior rolling period.
Asia: Japanese stocks fell last week, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.61% and the TOPIX slipping 0.17%, as investors digested mixed economic data and renewed trade tension with the U.S. The Biden-era 24% tariff on Japanese imports is now set to rise to 25% starting August 1, 2025. Markets were relieved the move wasn’t immediate, leaving room for negotiation, but the tone still weighed on sentiment. The yen weakened to 146.8 per dollar, while 10-year JGB yields rose to 1.49%. In contrast, Chinese equities gained. The CSI 300 rose 0.82% and the Shanghai Composite climbed 1.09% as weak inflation data raised expectations for fresh stimulus. Producer prices dropped 3.6% in June, extending factory deflation to 33 months, while consumer prices posted a slim 0.1% rise, likely fueled by policy support, not spending strength.
The Week Ahead
Markets have spent months pretending tariff threats are just background noise. That illusion gets tested Monday as President Trump’s 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports heads toward an August 1 start date. More are coming, Trump says, for anyone from Canada to Algeria. Investors have mostly assumed he won’t follow through. But the tone is shifting. Jamie Dimon, never shy with an opinion, has warned that markets are getting lazy about geopolitical risk. This week, "America's Banker" gets a chance to enter the chat with a tacit invite. JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo report Tuesday, followed by Goldman, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. Nearly $26 billion in trading revenue is expected. If tariff drama is starting to hit the tape, this is when it shows up. Jamie may be ready to say, told you so.
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